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Even a broken clock is right twice a day
Even a broken clock is right twice a day Sep 28, 2026 · @Ryan Draft for compliance review through FMG Suite. Disclosures to be added before publishing. Open your feed on any given night and you can find three ways to get rich before...
Read MoreTo Hike Or Not To Hike
Fed watching isn't the most productive use of our time. We're busy managing client portfolios and building relationships. And the Fed's real power has always come from talking, not doing. Talk that moves market participants to act in a...
Read MoreNational 401(k) Day: The Best Time to Ask One Simple Question
Every year on National 401(k) Day, we're reminded how important it is to save for retirement. That's true. But I think we're asking the wrong question. Instead of asking employees, "Are you contributing enough?" Business owners should...
Read MoreChecking In on the Bond Market
The yield on the 30-year Treasury reached 5.31% on August 17, the highest level since 2007.¹ Germany's long rates sit near 2011 levels and Canada's 30-year is at its highest since 2010.² Japan's 10-year touched 2.95%, a level last seen...
Read MoreThe Best Small-Cap Year Since 2003 Has a Conversion Problem
Small caps are having the kind of year that might tempt investors to consider a change in their allocations. The Russell 2000 is up roughly 19.5% year to date on a total return basis, its strongest run in more than two decades, and the...
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The Next Big Thing Might Already Be Here
The old adage, "The more things change, the more they stay the same," is proven every day in financial markets, the economy, politics, and investing. The truth is that most events in these areas are not truly transformative. They are...
Read MoreGold Preserves Wealth. Businesses Create It.
Ancient Rome: an ounce of gold could buy a high-quality toga. Today: an ounce of gold can still buy a high-quality suit. The same is true of other real assets like quality horses or cattle. Gold has done something remarkable over...
Read MoreSometimes the Most Important Tax Strategy Isn't the Strategy. It's the Sequence.
When someone sells a business, the questions usually come fast. How much tax will I owe? Should I set up a Donor Advised Fund? How much should I give, and should it happen before or after the sale? Good questions, all of them. But many...
Read MoreCommon Stock Market Myths (And What the Data Actually Says)
Every market cycle seems to create a new set of investing "rules." ❌ Never invest at all-time highs. ❌ Buy what's down the most. ❌ Wait for the perfect opportunity. ❌ There's too much cash on the sidelines. The problem? Many of the...
Read MoreWhen Stocks Fall on Good News
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the first week of July at a record high. The Nasdaq fell the same week. Both of those things are true, and the gap between them might be the most useful signal in markets right now. Here is what...
Read MoreLeave Clarity, Not Complexity
Estate Planning Isn't Just About Protecting Assets–It's About Making Life Easier for Your Loved Ones Recently, I've been helping a client settle their mother's estate, and the experience has reinforced an important lesson about estate...
Read MoreNew Boss. Same as the Old Boss?
Last Wednesday was Kevin Warsh's first Fed FOMC Meeting as Fed Chair. Rates were held steady at 3.5% - 3.75%.¹ Market expectations suggest a rate hike is still possible for 2026 (I'll take the under on that, btw).² Warsh's brief...
Read MoreDon't Confuse Attention With Success
Roughly 50% os small businesses fail within their first five years, and 65% don't make it to ten. About 70% of day traders end up with net losses, and only 1% to 3% are consistently profitable. A study of 26,000 stocks listed between...
Read MoreInvestment FOMO Is Expensive Entertainment
Every cycle has its own version of investment FOMO. Sometimes it shows up in beaten-down travel stocks. Sometimes it shows up in video game retailers. Sometimes it shows up in tech, memory, semiconductors, AI infrastructure, or...
Read MoreFollowing the Money Behind AI
Where is all the money investing in AI actually coming from? A friend asked me this recently. It's a question worth considering. The numbers being thrown around are enormous, so let's break down who's actually writing the checks. The...
Read MoreWhy We Stay Invested in the Stock Market
A Record of Compounding Progress Stock markets have demonstrated an extraordinary record of long-term growth, extending back nearly five centuries to Antwerp in 1531, home to the first organized exchange. The New York Stock Exchange...
Read MoreBeyond the Hype: AI’s Real Economic Potential
At our quarterly economic forum, we presented a slide showing the extraordinary growth in AI capability over just the last eighteen months. Less than two years ago, an AI model could perform roughly six minutes of human labor almost...
Read MoreMoney Is Personal Because Experience Is Personal
"Your personal experiences with money make up 0.0000001% of what's happened in the world, but maybe 80% of how you think the world works." - Morgan Housel, The Psychology of Money That quote is unbelievably true. Take me for example......
Read MoreBroken Rules of Thumb
Those of us who have had a broken thumb know it makes things awfully inconvenient. Try sports. Gripping a golf club. Swinging a baseball bat. Climbing a rock wall. Sure, you can get around it, but it is not going to get you where you...
Read MoreWhat a 20x+ P/E Ratio Actually Means for the Next Decade
Most investors know the S&P 500 is expensive. Few understand what that actually means for the next decade. Howard Marks and Paul Tudor Jones have both said it recently: at elevated P/E multiples, expect roughly zero returns over ten years.
Read MoreThe Most Important Commodity Nobody Is Watching
Most people know helium for three things. It floats balloons, it pitches your voice comically high, and there was that little hiccup in the 1930s involving a certain German blimp. That’s roughly the scope of the average person’s...
Read MoreFull Throttle Recap: What Stood Out
Full Throttle Q2 Economic Roundtable RecapWhat a room. This was designed to be a roundtable at scale, bringing together the right people for real conversation. That is exactly what showed up. Engagement was high, perspectives were...
Read MoreFrom Minutes to Hours: Why AI’s Productivity Impact May Be Underestimated
Last Thursday, we participated in our quarterly economic roundtable. Many topics were discussed, but the most interesting takeaway for me was the rapid improvement in mainstream artificial intelligence tools. According to JP Morgan...
Read MoreMarket Volatility Isn’t the Risk—It’s the Opportunity
Alec Bethurm and Matthew Doty break down what’s really driving today’s market volatility—and why it matters.Market volatility isn’t just noise—it’s changing how stocks move and how investors should think about opportunity. With faster...
Read MoreTrump Accounts: Read This Before You Open One
The government just created a new investment account for kids. If your child was born between 2025 and 2028, they're getting a free $1,000 from the U.S. Treasury just for being born. Cool, right? Here's what the headlines aren't...
Read MoreSmart Money Isn't Abandoning Traditional Investing. It's Using It Better.
There is a persistent belief in wealth management that once someone gets truly wealth, they move beyond "traditional" investing.As if crossing a certain net worth line means public markets suddenly become too pedestrian. As if...
Read MoreAre We Heading for an Energy Shock? Here’s the Reality
With everything happening around oil, geopolitics, and the Straits of Hormuz, it’s easy to assume we’re heading toward another major energy shock. But today’s environment looks very different than past cycles, especially with stronger...
Read MoreExtrapolation and Market Concentration
Here's a thought experiment: If NVIDIA grows over the next decade like it did over the last one (~70% CAGR, for the curious), guess how much it would be worth.Answer: Somewhere around $800 trillion. Which is more than all the assets in...
Read MorePrivate Credit, Gating, and the Truth About "Alternatives"
Excited to start sharing more of what happens behind the scenes at AFE.A lot of our time is spent in investment committee conversations. We're challenging ideas, digging into the details, and thinking through what’s actually best for...
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Tariffs, Trade, and Turmoil: The Next Paradigm in Global Economics
We’re now 120 days or so into the new administration and it has been anything but uneventful. Since “Liberation Day” on April 2nd, the S&P crashed and the 10-year treasury sold off, from 4.00% to 4.50%. And while market performance is ve...
Read MoreTrump Economic Agenda
Now that we are two months into the Trump administration we wanted to share some thoughts on the economic agenda, and what affects that may have on the market. We don’t like making predictions, but if the Trump administration is...
Read MoreMark Reviews 2024, Ponders 2025
Our first note for 2025, providing some reflections on 2024 and what's in store in 2025.
Read MoreOn Rate Cuts and Recessions
The more things change… There have been some changes over here at AFE. You probably know a few of them if you’ve chatted with Forster recently. New platform, new people, new firm. I am a new here, as is everyone else really, excepting...
Read MoreRate Cuts Are Coming! So...what does that mean?
Last week in Jackson Hole, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in no uncertain terms: “The time has come for policy to adjust, the direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the...
Read MoreThoughts on market turbulence 8/5
The S&P 500 Index dropped 3% on Monday! While this might seem alarming, the market has experienced similar single-day declines 82 times since 2000, averaging about 2.3 times a year. Such corrections are not unusual. This decline might...
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