Here's a thought experiment: If NVIDIA grows over the next decade like it did over the last one (~70% CAGR, for the curious), guess how much it would be worth.
Answer: Somewhere around $800 trillion. Which is more than all the assets in the world.
That's not a forecast.
That's what happens when you blindly extrapolate recent winners.
From JPM Guide to the Markets:
Over the past 40 years, the Top 10 companies in the S&P 500 have completely turned over:
- 1985 → 2025: Zero overlap
• 1995 → 2025: Zero overlap
• 2005 → 2025: Only one survivor (Microsoft)
Let that sink in.
Every era had its “untouchable” companies:
- Exxon, GE, AT&T
- Coca-Cola, Walmart
- Citi, Bank of America
Today, it’s:
Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta
Different names. Same story. But it's worth taking to heart: market leadership changes. Always. At the same time, concentration has surged: The Top 10 now make up ~35-40% of the S&P 500. Which means many investors today are making a large, implicit bet on a handful of companies—whether they realize it or not.
This doesn't mean today's leaders won't continue to perform. But it does mean:
- Diversification matters more than ever
- Valuation matters
- And history argues for humility
The takeaway we share with our clients:
“Every decade, the market convinces you the current winners are permanent. They never are.”